Analysis
Market Analysis
In-depth analysis and technical outlooks across every major asset class.
ETFs
Sequence of Returns Risk: Same Returns, $671,719 Apart
An original 20-year model shows why identical returns can produce different retirement outcomes—and what withdrawals, inflation and spending flexibility change.
Commodities Analysis
Contango vs Backwardation: Why Commodity Returns Can Defy Spot Prices
A futures curve is not a forecast. Original worked examples and the 2020 WTI episode show how delivery months, convergence and product design change commodity returns.
Stock Markets
Santa Claus Rally: What 76 Years of S&P 500 Data Really Show
The S&P 500 rose in 58 of 76 Santa Claus windows since 1950, but the edge has faded and the famous warning has missed more than it hit. Verified data, decade breakdown and Bitcoin.
Stock Markets
Short Squeeze Explained: What 5 Famous Squeezes Teach Traders
What a short squeeze is, the numbers that signal one, and verified data from VW, GameStop, AMC, Koss and Tesla on what happened after the peak.
Stock Markets
Bull Trap: How Often Do Breakouts Really Fail? 35 Years of Data
We tested every fresh S&P 500 breakout since 1991 and Bitcoin's record highs: most breakouts wobble, few become real bull traps.
Stock Markets
Time in the Market vs Timing the Market: What 20 Years of S&P 500 Data Show
Missing the S&P 500's 10 best days from 2006 to 2025 cut $80,600 to $35,900. Verified data on time in the market vs timing — and the fair counter-argument.
Stock Markets
Dollar Cost Averaging vs Lump Sum: 38 Years of S&P 500 Data
Dollar cost averaging vs lump sum tested on 454 rolling S&P 500 windows since 1988: lump sum won 77.8% of the time — but DCA won the scariest starts.
ETFs
ETF vs Index Fund: 10 Years of Data Show What Really Matters
ETF vs index fund compared with 10 years of verified S&P 500 data: VOO, IVV, SPY vs VFIAX, FXAIX, SWPPX — returns, fees, taxes and which to choose.
Stock Markets
Dead Cat Bounce: How to Tell a Bear-Market Rally from a Real Bottom
The S&P 500 staged nine rallies of 8–19% inside its 2007–09 collapse, and the NASDAQ twenty-eight inside the dot-com bust. Here is how to tell a dead cat bounce from a real bottom.
Stock Markets
Gamma Squeeze Explained: The Options Loop That Took GameStop Up 25x
How a gamma squeeze took GameStop from $18.84 to $483 in 18 days — the options mechanics, verified prices, and the SEC's findings.
Stock Markets
Black Monday 1987: The 22.6% Crash, Day by Day, and What Changed
On October 19, 1987 the Dow fell 22.6% in one session. We rebuilt the crash from daily S&P 500 data: the build-up, the bottom, the 23-month recovery, and the rules it left behind.
ETFs
Equal Weight S&P 500 vs the Regular Index: 23 Years of Data
The top 10 stocks now make up 38.9% of the S&P 500. We compared the equal-weight version across 23 years of total returns to see when it wins, when it loses, and why.
Commodities Analysis
Gold Silver Ratio: What 26 Years of Data Say About Today's 70
The gold silver ratio is back near 70, its long-run average, after a wild swing from 105 to 44. We tested 26 years of daily data to see what extremes actually predicted.
Stock Markets
Sell in May and Go Away: Does It Still Work? 41 Years of S&P 500 Data
We tested the "Sell in May" rule on 41 years of S&P 500 data. Winters beat summers on average — but summers still made money, and recent years broke the rule.
Stock Markets
Put/Call Ratio: What the Market's Fear Gauge Is Really Telling You
The put/call ratio is one of the most-watched sentiment gauges on Wall Street. Here is what it actually measures, what the latest CBOE readings say, and when the signal works — and fails.
Stock Markets
Golden Cross: Does the Stock Market's Most Famous Signal Actually Work?
The golden cross has flashed 28 times on the S&P 500 since 1970. We computed every one: 25 of 28 were higher a year later, with a median gain of 13.8%.
Bonds
Yield Curve Inversion: What the Longest Signal in Decades Means in 2026
The US yield curve spent 26 months inverted — its longest run in modern history — and no recession came. Here is what the signal is really saying in 2026.
Bonds
Bond Vigilantes Explained: Who They Are and Why They're Back in 2026
Bond vigilantes sell government debt to punish loose fiscal policy. With the 10-year Treasury at 5.18% and the term premium at a decade high, they are back in 2026.
Cryptocurrency Analysis
Uptober 2026: Does Bitcoin's Best Month Still Work?
Bitcoin rose in seven of the last nine Octobers, but 2025 broke the streak and the pattern barely exists outside BTC. Here is what Uptober is actually worth going into October 2026.
Stock Markets
Dark Pools Explained: What FINRA's Own Data Shows in 2026
Dark pools handled 11.8 billion shares in a single week of 2026 — but that is under 30% of off-exchange volume. What FINRA's ATS data actually shows, venue by venue.
Commodities Analysis
Silver Squeeze 2026: Is the Physical Market Still Tight?
Silver spiked above $121 in January and trades near $63 today. Five physical-market gauges show how much of the squeeze is left — and what would restart it.
Currencies
Carry Trade Explained: Why the Yen Trade Is Cracking in 2026
A carry trade borrows a low-yield currency to hold a higher-yield one. With the BoJ set to hike again on 18 September 2026, the yen version is under real pressure.
Currencies
Forex Trading Hours in 2026: Sessions, Overlaps and DST Shifts
The full forex session timetable in UTC, the overlaps that carry the volume, and the 2026 clock-change dates that move them - including the week the London-New York overlap runs five hours.
Stock Markets
Will the AI Bubble Burst? A Five-Condition Checklist
The S&P 500 trades at 19.6x forward, below its 5-year average — so the AI risk is not the multiple, it is how $720bn+ of capex gets funded. Five conditions that would mark a burst.