Golden Cross: Does the Stock Market's Most Famous Signal Actually Work?
The golden cross has flashed 28 times on the S&P 500 since 1970. We computed every one: 25 of 28 were higher a year later, with a median gain of 13.8%.
Key takeaways
- A golden cross occurs when the 50-day moving average rises above the 200-day moving average, signaling a shift from downtrend to uptrend.
- The S&P 500 has produced 28 golden crosses since 1970; 12 months later the index was higher in 25 of 28 cases, with a median gain of 13.8%.
- The three failures — 1977, 1986, and 2019 — came from flat, tangled averages or an unforeseeable shock (COVID), not from the signal itself being random.
- Death crosses are poor sell signals: the March 2020 death cross was followed by a 50.7% gain over the next year.
- The latest golden cross formed July 1, 2025 at 6,198; the regime is still active, with the 50-day about 6% above the 200-day as of September 25, 2026.
A golden cross happens when a market's 50-day moving average climbs above its 200-day moving average — the chart pattern traders treat as a signal that a downtrend has ended and a bull phase is beginning. It is probably the most famous signal in technical analysis, and also one of the least tested in public writing. So we tested it. Using daily S&P 500 data from 1970 through September 25, 2026, we identified every golden cross — 28 in total — and measured what the index did over the following 3, 6, and 12 months.
The short answer: the signal has worked far more often than it has failed, but not for the reason most people think. This is not investment advice; it is a dated, reproducible look at the historical record.
What is a golden cross in stocks?
A moving average is simply the average closing price over a set number of days. The 50-day moving average captures the medium-term trend; the 200-day captures the long-term trend. When the 50-day crosses above the 200-day, it means recent prices have been strong enough to pull the medium-term trend above the long-term one. That crossover is the golden cross. The opposite event — the 50-day falling below the 200-day — is called a death cross.
Two things are worth knowing before trusting any crossover. First, it is a lagging signal: by the time the averages cross, the market has usually already rallied for weeks or months. Second, it is a trend signal: it says nothing about valuation, earnings, or the economy. It only describes what prices have already done.
The full track record: every S&P 500 golden cross since 1970
We computed 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages on daily S&P 500 closes and flagged every day the 50-day crossed from below to above the 200-day. Here is every signal since 1970, with the index level at the cross and the forward returns (data pulled September 27, 2026):
| Golden cross date | S&P 500 level | +3 months | +6 months | +12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 1970 | 83 | +13.8% | +24.8% | +14.7% |
| Jan 26, 1972 | 102 | +4.3% | +4.9% | +13.2% |
| Mar 6, 1975 | 84 | +10.8% | +3.0% | +18.2% |
| Jan 4, 1977 | 106 | -7.1% | -5.3% | -11.5% |
| May 22, 1978 | 99 | +4.8% | -4.7% | +1.1% |
| Mar 21, 1979 | 101 | +0.4% | +6.9% | +3.0% |
| Jun 17, 1980 | 116 | +9.2% | +12.6% | +14.9% |
| Sep 28, 1982 | 123 | +14.2% | +23.2% | +38.0% |
| Sep 12, 1984 | 165 | -1.0% | +8.2% | +12.4% |
| Nov 25, 1986 | 248 | +14.0% | +17.2% | -0.7% |
| Jun 28, 1988 | 272 | -1.5% | +1.7% | +20.6% |
| May 25, 1990 | 355 | -12.1% | -11.1% | +6.5% |
| Feb 15, 1991 | 369 | +0.9% | +4.5% | +11.8% |
| Sep 15, 1994 | 475 | -4.2% | +4.3% | +22.9% |
| Dec 8, 1998 | 1,181 | +9.8% | +10.3% | +18.8% |
| Nov 11, 1999 | 1,381 | +0.4% | +2.9% | +1.4% |
| May 14, 2003 | 939 | +4.8% | +11.4% | +16.7% |
| Nov 5, 2004 | 1,166 | +3.0% | +1.1% | +4.6% |
| Sep 12, 2006 | 1,313 | +7.6% | +6.0% | +13.0% |
| Jun 23, 2009 | 895 | +19.7% | +24.5% | +22.0% |
| Oct 22, 2010 | 1,183 | +9.1% | +12.9% | +4.7% |
| Jan 31, 2012 | 1,312 | +7.1% | +5.1% | +15.3% |
| Dec 21, 2015 | 2,021 | +0.8% | +3.2% | +12.3% |
| Apr 25, 2016 | 2,088 | +3.9% | +2.6% | +14.4% |
| Apr 1, 2019 | 2,867 | +3.4% | +3.8% | -9.9% |
| Jul 9, 2020 | 3,152 | +8.5% | +20.7% | +38.6% |
| Feb 2, 2023 | 4,180 | -2.8% | +7.1% | +18.3% |
| Jul 1, 2025 | 6,198 | +7.9% | +11.3% | +20.7% |
The summary statistics:
- 12 months after a golden cross: the S&P 500 was higher in 25 of 28 cases (89%). Mean return +12.7%, median +13.8%.
- 6 months after: higher in 25 of 28 cases. Mean +7.6%, median +5.6%.
- The three 12-month failures: January 1977 (-11.5%, into the late-70s bear market), November 1986 (-0.7%, the cross came weeks before the 1987 crash's aftermath dragged the 12-month window), and April 2019 (-9.9%, because the COVID crash of March 2020 landed inside the window).
For context, the S&P 500's average 12-month return over all days since 1970 is roughly 8–9%. So buying a golden cross has historically beaten the average year — but note that the signal inherently selects for moments when momentum has already turned, which is exactly when forward returns tend to be better.
When the golden cross fails
The failures share a pattern. The 1977 and 1986 crosses happened in choppy, range-bound markets where the 50-day and 200-day averages were nearly flat — the cross was noise, not trend change. The 2019 cross was genuine, but an unforeseeable pandemic overwhelmed it. The lesson: a golden cross formed by flat, tangled averages is worth far less than one formed after a clean, deep reset. Whipsaw markets produce whipsaw signals.
The death cross is not what you think
Here is the part most articles get wrong. If the golden cross were a true timing signal, the death cross should be a reliable sell. It is not. In our data, the S&P 500 was higher 12 months after most death crosses too — sometimes spectacularly. The March 30, 2020 death cross was followed by a +50.7% gain over the next year; the July 2010 death cross by +31.0%; the April 2025 death cross by +30.3%. Death crosses tend to trigger after most of the damage is done, often near the bottom. Treating them as short signals would have been a costly mistake far more often than a profitable one.
What the pair of signals really measures is regime, not timing. Markets spend most of their time rising, so any signal that keeps you invested during established uptrends — and a golden cross regime does that — will look good over long samples.
Where the signal stands now
The most recent golden cross formed on July 1, 2025, with the S&P 500 at 6,198. Twelve months later the index was up 20.7%. As of September 25, 2026, the index closed at 7,743, with the 50-day average at 7,636 and the 200-day at 7,205 — the golden cross regime remains in place, with the 50-day about 6% above the 200-day. The trend signal that flashed in mid-2025 has not been contradicted.
How traders actually use it
Professionals rarely trade the cross itself. The common uses:
- Regime filter. Only take long positions while the 50-day is above the 200-day; stand aside or reduce risk when it is below. This alone would have kept investors out of much of the 2008 and 2022 drawdowns — at the cost of some whipsaws.
- Confirmation, not entry. A golden cross confirming a thesis built on earnings, valuations, or macro data carries more weight than the cross alone.
- Position sizing. Some systematic funds scale exposure to the distance between the two averages rather than the cross event.
If you want to experiment with moving-average signals yourself, our technical analysis tool plots the 50- and 200-day averages on major instruments. For context on how cross-market signals interact, see our quadruple witching explainer and our data review of stagflation risk in 2026.
If you trade indices and want to act on trend regimes like this one, you can open a trading account with our partner broker. As always, this is information, not advice — 89% historical win rates still mean roughly one signal in nine loses money, and position sizing matters more than any single indicator.
Sources & methodology
Primary sources and datasets referenced in this article. How we source, verify and date our reporting is set out in our editorial policy & methodology.
- S&P 500 historical daily data (^GSPC)— Yahoo Finance · retrieved 27 Sept 2026 · as of 25 Sept 2026Daily closes used to compute 50/200-day moving averages and all 28 golden crosses since 1970; index at 7,743 on Sep 25, 2026
- S&P 500 Index factsheet— S&P Dow Jones Indices · retrieved 27 Sept 2026Index methodology and long-run average annual returns used as the comparison baseline