Gold Silver Ratio: What 26 Years of Data Say About Today's 70

Short answer: on September 30, 2026, COMEX gold settled near $4,186.70 an ounce and silver near $60.10, putting the gold silver ratio at about 69.7. That is almost exactly its average since 2000 (69.2). In our 26-year test, the ratio said the most at its extremes. Above 90, silver beat gold over the next 12 months on 89% of days. Below 50, silver almost never beat gold. Around 70, the ratio gives no strong signal either way.

This guide explains what the ratio measures and walks through the history, including the record 125.9 in March 2020 and the plunge to 44 in January 2026. It then shows what our backtest found and how traders use the ratio without treating it as a crystal ball.

What is the gold silver ratio?

The gold silver ratio is the price of one ounce of gold divided by the price of one ounce of silver. It tells you how many ounces of silver you need to buy one ounce of gold. At 69.7, one ounce of gold buys roughly 70 ounces of silver.

The ratio is not a price forecast for either metal. It measures relative value. It can fall because silver rallies, because gold drops, or because both rise and silver rises faster. That is why traders mostly use it to decide which metal to favour, not whether to own metals at all.

Why the ratio moves

• Silver is half industrial. Solar panels, electronics and electrical uses take a large share of silver demand, so silver behaves partly like a growth metal. In recessions and panics it tends to fall harder than gold.
• Gold is the central-bank metal. Gold is held by central banks and is a core safe haven. In crises, money flows to gold first, and the ratio rises.
• Silver's market is smaller. The silver market is much smaller and thinner than gold's, so its moves are larger in both directions. The ratio's swings are mostly silver's swings.

The gold silver ratio today (September 30, 2026)

Measure	Value
Gold (COMEX front-month)	$4,186.70
Silver (COMEX front-month)	$60.10
Gold silver ratio	69.7
Average since Aug 2000	69.2
Median since Aug 2000	68.4
2026 range	44.2 (Jan 26) to 71.7 (Jul 17)

The ratio sits roughly in the middle of its 26-year distribution. About half of all trading days since 2000 closed lower, and about half closed higher.

A short history of the ratio's extremes

Date	Ratio	Gold	Silver	What happened
Apr 25, 2011	32.0 (low)	$1,508.60	$47.15	Silver's speculative peak near $50
Mar 18, 2020	125.9 (record high)	$1,477.30	$11.73	COVID crash; silver collapsed
Apr 21, 2025	105.4	$3,425.30	$32.50	Tariff shock; gold surged, silver lagged
Jan 26, 2026	44.2	$5,082.50	$115.08	Silver's blow-off peak
Sep 30, 2026	69.7	$4,186.70	$60.10	Back near the long-run average

The past 18 months have been one of the most violent stretches on record. In April 2025, gold bought more than 105 ounces of silver. Nine months later it bought only 44, the lowest reading since 2011. Silver ran from $32.50 to $115.08 in that time, a gain of about 254%. Gold peaked at $5,318.40 on January 29, 2026. Both metals have since retreated a long way. Silver has fallen by roughly half from its high, which is how the ratio climbed back to about 70. We covered the run-up in our silver squeeze analysis.

The ratio's long drift higher, then back

Yearly averages show how the "normal" level has moved:

Year	Average ratio
2006	52.8
2012	53.8
2018	81.2
2020	88.9
2022	83.5
2024	85.3
2026 (to Sep 30)	63.4

From 2018 to 2024, the ratio spent most of its time above 80. People who bought silver every time the ratio looked "too high" at 80 often waited years. That is the first lesson: a "normal" level is not fixed.

Does the ratio predict anything? Our 26-year test

We took every trading day from August 2000 to September 2026 on which both gold and silver futures had a close (6,545 days). For each day, we checked how silver and gold performed over the following 12 months. Then we grouped the results by ratio level.

Ratio on the day	Days	Silver, next 12m (median)	Gold, next 12m (median)	Silver beat gold
90 or higher	290	+59.4%	+19.7%	89% of days
85 or higher	860	+42.0%	+27.5%	72%
80 or higher	1,401	+31.2%	+24.5%	61%
50 or lower	398	+0.3%	+17.9%	2%

The pattern is clear. The more extreme the ratio, the more reliable the snap-back. At 80, the edge was modest, with silver ahead only 61% of the time. Readings above 90 were followed by strong silver outperformance, and readings below 50 were followed by silver badly lagging.

Read the fine print before you trade it

• Few independent episodes. The 290 days above 90 came from just seven episodes (2019, 2020, 2022, 2023, two in 2024, and 2024–25). The sub-50 days came from five completed episodes, concentrated in 2006–2012. Daily observations overlap heavily, so the true sample is small.
• Timing risk is large. Above 90, the ratio climbed from 90 to 125.9 in early 2020 before it reversed. A trade that was right over 12 months could have lost heavily in the first few weeks.
• Regimes change. The 2018–2024 period showed the ratio can stay high for years if industrial demand is weak and money favours gold.
• No costs included. Futures roll costs, spreads and financing are excluded, and the figures are not adjusted for these.

What a ratio near 70 means right now

At about 70, the ratio offers no statistical edge: it sits right at its long-run average. The extreme signal that fired in early 2025 has already played out, and silver beat gold handily. The opposite extreme in January 2026 also played out: silver has since fallen much further than gold.

For 2026, the more useful questions are about direction. Is silver's industrial demand holding up? Is gold still drawing safe-haven and central-bank demand? The relationship between gold and the dollar, real yields and equities matters more here than the ratio itself. Our academy lesson on gold correlations and when they break covers this.

How traders actually use the gold silver ratio

1. Relative-value tilt

Long-term metals holders sometimes switch part of their holdings toward silver when the ratio is very high, and back toward gold when it is very low. This changes the mix without changing total metals exposure. Our data supports this only at true extremes, not at the 80 threshold often quoted online.

2. Pair trade

Some traders buy one metal and short the other in matched dollar amounts. That bets purely on the ratio and removes most of the general move in metals. It requires margin, two positions and discipline about the timing risks above.

3. Confirmation, not a trigger

Many technical traders treat an extreme ratio as context and wait for price confirmation in silver itself before acting, such as a trend change. You can check current trend readings for gold and silver on our technical analysis tool, or follow our gold signals hub.

If you plan to trade either metal, open a trading account with position sizes that can survive the ratio overshooting before it reverts. Leveraged metals trading can lose money quickly.

Bottom line

The gold silver ratio is a useful gauge of relative value, but only at extremes. Twenty-six years of data show strong silver outperformance after readings above 90 and clear underperformance after readings below 50. They also show that the ratio can stay stretched for months or years. At today's 69.7, the ratio is neutral, and the next big move in metals will have to be explained by something else.

Methodology: COMEX gold (GC=F) and silver (SI=F) continuous front-month futures daily closes from Yahoo Finance, Aug 30, 2000 to Oct 1, 2026, retrieved October 1, 2026. Ratio = gold close ÷ silver close. Forward returns use the first trading day 365 calendar days later. Returns exclude roll costs and fees. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This article is educational and is not investment advice.