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Latest Analysis
Sequence of Returns Risk: Same Returns, $671,719 Apart
An original 20-year model shows why identical returns can produce different retirement outcomes—and what withdrawals, inflation and spending flexibility change.
Commodities Analysis
Contango vs Backwardation: Why Commodity Returns Can Defy Spot Prices
A futures curve is not a forecast. Original worked examples and the 2020 WTI episode show how delivery months, convergence and product design change commodity returns.
Stock Markets
Santa Claus Rally: What 76 Years of S&P 500 Data Really Show
The S&P 500 rose in 58 of 76 Santa Claus windows since 1950, but the edge has faded and the famous warning has missed more than it hit. Verified data, decade breakdown and Bitcoin.
Stock Markets
Short Squeeze Explained: What 5 Famous Squeezes Teach Traders
What a short squeeze is, the numbers that signal one, and verified data from VW, GameStop, AMC, Koss and Tesla on what happened after the peak.
Stock Markets
Bull Trap: How Often Do Breakouts Really Fail? 35 Years of Data
We tested every fresh S&P 500 breakout since 1991 and Bitcoin's record highs: most breakouts wobble, few become real bull traps.
Stock Markets
Time in the Market vs Timing the Market: What 20 Years of S&P 500 Data Show
Missing the S&P 500's 10 best days from 2006 to 2025 cut $80,600 to $35,900. Verified data on time in the market vs timing — and the fair counter-argument.
Stock Markets
Dollar Cost Averaging vs Lump Sum: 38 Years of S&P 500 Data
Dollar cost averaging vs lump sum tested on 454 rolling S&P 500 windows since 1988: lump sum won 77.8% of the time — but DCA won the scariest starts.
Market movers
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